Seasons have a very specific rhythm and cycle! So do our businesses...and nothing is more definitive in the seasons of our companies than our sales performance metrics from quotas to an intricate string of pipeline KPIs all of which come down to a measurement of dollars within a fixed period of a month or a quarter.
And that's exactly what I want to talk about this morning...because not all quarters are created equal.
Q1 is about survival and discovery. You're shaking off January's slow start, managing the post-holiday pipeline hangover, focusing on your sales kickoff, the new commission plan and mobilizing what changes you're going to make in the team. All of this while making sure that you make the numbers you committed to back in January. For sales success in 2026, you need to have absolute focus to one consistent theme in your work as a salesperson or as a manager, and that is that you need to focus on the Science of Sales rather than the vague art of "hoping", "guessing" and "betting". Sure, there's always some level of a mix between the science and the art of Sales", but it's a 90/10 mix. Actually, more like 95/5.
In Q1 we've learned which of our January forecasts were wishful thinking and which were real. Q3 is always about the summer swoon, where vacation schedules play havoc with buyer decisions and deals that were "definitely closing in July" somehow migrate to September. Q4 is always the sprint to the finish exhilarating, necessary, and completely unforgiving. Q2 on the other hand is March Madness and the Boston Marathon all rolled up into one period of 65 days during which everything is about preparation, disciplined weekly training, and executing on detailed playbooks.
Here's why I say that with conviction after forty-plus years of watching sales organizations succeed and fail:
Q2 is the only quarter where you have all four advantages simultaneously:
-A full pipeline reset informed by your Q1 data.
-Buyers are fully back at their desks with approved budgets.
-A full runway of days with only a few holidays to run a complete sales cycle before summer.
-The psychological momentum of a fresh start; it's Spring after all and the end of a wicked winta'.
On the other side, my experience is that if you miss Q2, you'll spend the rest of the year playing catchup, and as a sales metrics and planning guy, I know that that math almost never works.
So, let's talk about what the next two weeks should actually look like. because while it's true that very little will move the needle on this quarter's results at this point, that doesn't mean these two weeks are wasted. Far from it! The smartest thing you can do right now is treat this quarter as expensive market research and mine it ruthlessly.
1. Where did your pipeline actually come from...and where did it die? Not where you thought it came from in January, but where it actually originated. Which lead sources produced the deals that closed? Which ones stuffed your pipeline with noise that stalled and never moved? This single question will reshape your Q2 demand gen in both time and dollars more than any dusty marketing plan written back in December.
2. What was your real average sales cycle in days/revenue? If your ASP is above $50K and your average cycle ran longer than 90 days, that tells you something: deals you haven't started yet in Q1 almost certainly won't close in Q2. Which means right now, in these final two weeks of March, you need to be having discovery conversations that will close in June, not wasting even more time following up on proposals that should have closed in February. This same stat may also show you that you're chasing deals that are just too small. We know from hard data that it takes just as long to close a $15K deal as it does a $30K to $50K deal.
3. Where did we lose... and to whom? Losses tell you more than wins. Did you lose on price, on product fit, on timing, or because a competitor got in the door six weeks before you did? Competitive losses in Q1 are Q2's early warning system. If you lost three deals to the same competitor, that's not bad luck, that's a pattern that needs a response which, most probably is that you need to tune up your Value Propositions.
4. Which deals in your pipeline haven't advanced? Display your CRM on Monday and keep it up for the entire 60-minute meeting. Any deal that hasn't had a logged meaningful interaction in 30 days is not a pipeline deal! Take it out of the pipeline. It's a hope, and you know what "hope" is. The difference between a good Q2 forecast and a fantasy is ruthless qualification in a customized disciplined process of "This is The Way We Sell". My own discipline is 100% commitment to our sales mantra of "Process & Tools & Tech & Metrics & People".
5. What did our best customers tell us? Q1 renewals and expansions are the canary in the coal mine for Q2 new business. If your existing customers renewed enthusiastically, leaned in, and expanded their scope with renewals and expansions, you have a powerful story to tell prospects. If renewals were slow, painful or conditional, something's wrong, and it needs to be fixed before you scale acquisition.
The first day of spring is not just a calendar marker. For our sales organizations, it's the starting gun for the quarter that defines our year. The teams that use these final two weeks of Q1 not to panic about the number, but to learn everything Q1 is trying to teach them...those are the teams that will win in Q2 with clarity, conviction, and a pipeline that's built on reality rather than hope!
To everything there is a season. Make yours count beginning Monday!
Jack is Managing Partner of Derby Management and founder of the Derby Entrepreneurship Center at Tufts University, where he teaches sales and marketing. He has spent 40+ years helping companies build the systems that turn sales from an art form into a science.
Now's THE Time to dive into your Sales planning for what lies ahead in 2026!
Think about taking a full day in early April to commit to updating your Sales Playbook for the balance of 2026. Just connect with me at jack@derbymanagement.com, and we can discuss a few ideas.
"Writing the Winning Sales Plan"
"Writing the Winning Business Plan"
www.derbymanagement.com
Derby Entrepreneurship Center at Tufts.