--- title: the science & guessing of forecasting... description: "Yesterday's hardened forecast was brilliant sun all day! This morning's is \"no or some sun\", \"fog or maybe fog\" and temps either at 64 or maybe 72." image: https://www.derbymanagement.com/hubfs/walking%20last%20day%20of%20February.jpg --- [![Derby Management](https://www.derbymanagement.com/hs-fs/file-2618089236-png/derbymanagement/derbylogo.png) ](https://www.derbymanagement.com/)                                                  [![Social media-LI logo](https://www.derbymanagement.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Social%20media-LI%20logo.jpeg?width=26&name=Social%20media-LI%20logo.jpeg) ](https://www.linkedin.com/in/jackderby/)[![Social Media-Twitter ](https://www.derbymanagement.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Social%20Media-Twitter%20.jpeg?width=25&name=Social%20Media-Twitter%20.jpeg) ](https://twitter.com/derbymanagement)[![Social Media-Facebook logo](https://www.derbymanagement.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Social%20Media-Facebook%20logo.jpeg?width=27&name=Social%20Media-Facebook%20logo.jpeg)](https://www.facebook.com/derbymanagement/) **Working with you to create success in 2026!!!  ** # Derby Management's "Competitive Edge" Blog # the science & guessing of forecasting... Posted by [Jack Derby, Coach, Advisor, Tufts Entrepreneurship Professor](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/author/jack-derby-coach-advisor-tufts-entrepreneurship-professor) on Fri, Mar 18, 2022 - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) First, on what looks like a spectacular weatha' day here on the NH beach, I'm officially declaring today as "The End of Winta".  I'm Done.  It's Over.  Totally Finished!  ![walking last day of February](https://www.derbymanagement.com/hs-fs/hubfs/walking%20last%20day%20of%20February.jpg?width=264&name=walking%20last%20day%20of%20February.jpg)Given the seemingly-hardened forecast all week, I purposefully did not make the weekly Wednesday night drive from Tufts to my tiny town of Winhall, VT (pop. 769) since I wanted to be on the beach at sunrise today welcoming in what's been forecasted all week to be a sun-filled day in the 70's.   But, as all of us know in the professional of Sales, "forecasts" are just that, and forecasting is always tough work no matter how analytical and tech-driven it becomes.      Right now, even with a spectacular full moon shining, the exact current forecast for today is... - dense fog advisory until 10 - currently 44 degrees  - showers - partly sunny with 64  ### Forecasting is tough work! I'll happily survive the reality of being on the beach this morning whether it's yesterday's forecast of brilliant sun all day, or this morning's re-forecast of *"no or some sun",* *"fog or maybe fog"* and temps either at 64 or 72.  All good since after all...*"I'm on the beach", *which is never a bad place to be! But, as I put on my Sales hat around 7:30, I'm planning (not hoping) on closing two $40,000 deals today given that all my [Hubspot ](https://www.hubspot.com)analytics are dialed in at 100%.  - My confidence level is super high at 95% - My last-minute confirming calls are already scheduled for this morning  - C-level hard commitments have been made all week and confirmed again Wednesday ...but there's still those pesky signatures that need to be received today, and as we all know in Sales, it ain't over, until it's over, and the deal is signed for.  Am I confident? Absolutely!  But I also have two more backup deals on schedule...just in case! Have a great day selling today...and enjoy the weekend!   ### **it's Time to re-forecast your '22 sales plan** [![Jack Derby, Tufts Professor & Sales Coach ](https://www.derbymanagement.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Rich%20Text%20Pasting/unknown-1593174032420.jpg?width=245&name=unknown-1593174032420.jpg)](https://www.linkedin.com/in/jackderby/)Your well-planned 2022 Sales Plan that you architected in November, revised and got approved in December and rolled out perfectly at your January sales kickoff now needs a tune-up.  As that infamous philosopher, Mike Tyson, once noted *"no plan survives the first punch!".  *It's time, once the quarter's done, to immediately spend a day with the team during the first week of April and walk through and argue out your entire tactical plan for Q2 and Q3.      [Here's a 2022 guide](https://www.derbymanagement.com/hubfs/Writing%20the%20Winning%20Sales%20Plan/Writing%20the%202022%20Winning%20Sales%20Plan%20122921.pdf) to help or just connect with me anytime!   [www.derbymanagement.com  ](https://www.derbymanagement.com/) [D](https://gordon.tufts.edu/entrepreneurship-center)[erby Entrepreneurship Center@Tufts.](https://gordon.tufts.edu/entrepreneurship-center) Tags: [sales coaching](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/sales-coaching), [sales effectiveness](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/sales-effectiveness), [sales enablement](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/sales-enablement), [sales tools](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/sales-tools), [marketing effectiveness](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/marketing-effectiveness), [how to close sales](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/how-to-close-sales), [sales success](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/sales-success), [writing sales plans](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/writing-sales-plans), [Derby Entrepreneurship Center@Tufts](https://www.derbymanagement.com/blog/topic/derby-entrepreneurship-centertufts) ### Subscribe Here! ### Most Popular Posts ## Share this Page [![Share on Facebook](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/facebook-24x24.png)](http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.derbymanagement.com%2Fblog%2Fthe-science-guessing-of-forecasting%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dfacebook) [![Share on LinkedIn](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/linkedin-24x24.png)](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=True&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.derbymanagement.com%2Fblog%2Fthe-science-guessing-of-forecasting%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dlinkedin) [![Share on Twitter](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/twitter-24x24.png)](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.derbymanagement.com%2Fblog%2Fthe-science-guessing-of-forecasting%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dtwitter&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.derbymanagement.com%2Fblog%2Fthe-science-guessing-of-forecasting%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dtwitter&source=tweetbutton&text=the%20science%20%26%20guessing%20of%20forecasting...) [![Share on Email](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/email-24x24.png)](mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.derbymanagement.com%2Fblog%2Fthe-science-guessing-of-forecasting%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Demail%20&body=Check%20out%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.derbymanagement.com%2Fblog%2Fthe-science-guessing-of-forecasting%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Demail) ## Recent Blog Posts